18 April 2017
Plan with Africa
Africa must become The Place to be
By: Karsten Riise
Africa moves to a top position on the global Agenda
As one of the world's leading industrialized countries, Germany has made a right decision to push for a new kind of large-scale, longterm cooperation with Africa. To involve global actors with Africa (states, organizations, companies and individuals), Germany has issued an open document with ideas: "Africa and Europe - A new partnership for development, peace and a better future". The initiative is good - but fundamental changes are needed.
http://www.bmz.de/en/publications/type_of_publication/information_flyer/information_brochures/Materialie270_africa_marshallplan.pdf
Africa is on way to become a continent of 2 billion people. Cities are growing immensely, and both new and existing cities require enormous resources for planning and development.
The German paper points out that 20 million new African jobs must be established every year, to keep Africa on track. But the German paper only discusses agricultural jobs, omitting the fact, that the majority of new African jobs (perhaps nearly all), must be established in cities. Unwieldy, poverty-ridden African mega-cities, like we have seen in other places of the globe, must be avoided through broad and persistent action now.
The fact, that Africa must focus on city jobs requires a fundamental break with how African development used to be carried out. Instead of rural farming projects, digging wells and setting up small schools in villages etc, future emphasis in African development must be placed on boosting manufacturing (key to industrialization and exports to pay for high-tech imports), knowledge and services, including tourism.
Urbanization in Africa
Africa's total population is by the UN expected to increase from 1,166 million in 2015 to 1,812 million in 2035 - a total increase of 645 million people in 20 years - see figure 1.
Using data from the UN World Urbanization Project, it becomes clear, that 65% (two thirds) of Africa's population increase will happen in the cities. This is due to the natural migration of people from the country-side to cities. While Africa's total population will go up by "only" 55%, Africa's overall city population will double (up 89%).
In a middle band across Africa, consisting of Western, Middle and Eastern Africa, city populations will increase by 100%-126% (fig.1). This is, however, only the average: City-population in for example Niger will more than triple. Niger will be one of the cross-roads for African migrants to the EU, Turkey or the Middle East.
Figure 1
Plan with Africa
Africa must become The Place to be
By: Karsten Riise
Africa moves to a top position on the global Agenda
As one of the world's leading industrialized countries, Germany has made a right decision to push for a new kind of large-scale, longterm cooperation with Africa. To involve global actors with Africa (states, organizations, companies and individuals), Germany has issued an open document with ideas: "Africa and Europe - A new partnership for development, peace and a better future". The initiative is good - but fundamental changes are needed.
http://www.bmz.de/en/publications/type_of_publication/information_flyer/information_brochures/Materialie270_africa_marshallplan.pdf
Africa is on way to become a continent of 2 billion people. Cities are growing immensely, and both new and existing cities require enormous resources for planning and development.
The German paper points out that 20 million new African jobs must be established every year, to keep Africa on track. But the German paper only discusses agricultural jobs, omitting the fact, that the majority of new African jobs (perhaps nearly all), must be established in cities. Unwieldy, poverty-ridden African mega-cities, like we have seen in other places of the globe, must be avoided through broad and persistent action now.
The fact, that Africa must focus on city jobs requires a fundamental break with how African development used to be carried out. Instead of rural farming projects, digging wells and setting up small schools in villages etc, future emphasis in African development must be placed on boosting manufacturing (key to industrialization and exports to pay for high-tech imports), knowledge and services, including tourism.
Urbanization in Africa
Africa's total population is by the UN expected to increase from 1,166 million in 2015 to 1,812 million in 2035 - a total increase of 645 million people in 20 years - see figure 1.
Using data from the UN World Urbanization Project, it becomes clear, that 65% (two thirds) of Africa's population increase will happen in the cities. This is due to the natural migration of people from the country-side to cities. While Africa's total population will go up by "only" 55%, Africa's overall city population will double (up 89%).
In a middle band across Africa, consisting of Western, Middle and Eastern Africa, city populations will increase by 100%-126% (fig.1). This is, however, only the average: City-population in for example Niger will more than triple. Niger will be one of the cross-roads for African migrants to the EU, Turkey or the Middle East.
Figure 1
Population
|
2015
|
2035
|
2015 - 2035
Increase
|
|||||||
Millions
|
Total
|
Urban
|
Urban%
|
Total
|
Urban
|
Urban%
|
Total
|
Urban
|
Total
|
Urban
|
Northern
Africa
|
217
|
112
|
52%
|
281
|
162
|
58%
|
63
|
50
|
29%
|
44%
|
Western Africa
|
350
|
158
|
45%
|
583
|
329
|
56%
|
233
|
171
|
67%
|
108%
|
Middle Africa
|
143
|
63
|
44%
|
235
|
126
|
54%
|
91
|
63
|
64%
|
100%
|
Eastern Africa
|
395
|
101
|
26%
|
645
|
228
|
35%
|
250
|
127
|
63%
|
126%
|
Southern
Africa
|
61
|
38
|
62%
|
69
|
48
|
70%
|
8
|
11
|
13%
|
28%
|
Africa
|
1,166
|
472
|
40%
|
1,812
|
893
|
49%
|
645
|
422
|
55%
|
89%
|
Source: Author's calculations based on UN 2014 World
Urbanization Project - figures rounded
|
||||||||||
Africa's fastest growing cities are only 2,800-4,700 km away from the EU and Turkey.
Africa's active population doubles in cities
Africa's city-development is even more challenging than figure 1 shows. Not only is Africa's total population growing - the percentage of Africa's active population (15-64 years) grows too. The combined effects of total population growth, an increase in the share of active people, and migration to the cities, will put an enormous stress on Africa's cities.
According to IMF (Working Paper WP14/143, August 2014, figure 1), Africa's working age population is expected to increase from about 55% to 59% the next 20 years. These percentages are approximate, and vary from country to country, but they are indicative. To demonstrate the severe effects from the combination of population growth, urbanization, and growth in active working population, I have made a simplified model-calculation, se figure 2:
Figure 2
Population
|
2015
|
2035
|
2015-2035 increase
|
||||||||
(million)
|
all
|
active
|
active %
|
all
|
active
|
active %
|
all
|
active
|
all %
|
active %
|
|
Urban
|
472
|
259
|
55%
|
893
|
527
|
59%
|
422
|
268
|
63%
|
89%
|
103%
|
Rural
|
695
|
382
|
55%
|
918
|
542
|
59%
|
224
|
160
|
37%
|
32%
|
42%
|
Africa
|
1,166
|
641
|
55%
|
1,812
|
1,069
|
59%
|
645
|
427
|
100%
|
55%
|
67%
|
Source: Author - indicative model calculation on UN
data - actual figures will vary
|
|||||||||||
Africa's
total population increase of 55% may not seem alarming to some at first glance.
But Africa's active city population is likely to increase by 103%, and the
geographic effect of this will happen in the middle-band of Africa.
The total increase in active population is calculated at 427 million over 20 years (fig.2). Divided over 20 years, the 427 million translate into an average of 21.4 million more active Africans per year, who will need either job or education. My overall figures thus correspond with Germany's figure of 20 million new African jobs per year. But my figures demonstrate that out of the total increase of 427 million active-age Africans, a vast majority of 268 million (63%, two-thirds) will be in the cities. So out of the needed creation of 20 million new African jobs per year, at least two-thirds, or 14 million jobs per year, must be city-jobs. Multiply the 14 million jobs with the investment needed per city-job, and Africa needs a very high billion-investment - every year. On top comes more billions needed for a big increase in Africa's capacity for primary, secondary and tertiary education.
As things develop (war, climate, desaster - or better connectivity), the migration-speed to cities may be much faster.
Help African farmers - by developing cities
It is an old failure in development-efforts, to focus too narrowly on farming. If people do not migrate in a steady flow from farms to the cities, population increase in the country-side means that farmland will have to be divided into ever smaller, un-economic small pieces. That trap must be avoided. Farming needs higher earnings for better methods and efficiency, to produce more food and better living for farmers. Better farm-earnings can also moderate the speed of migration to the cities. One of the best ways to help farmers earn more, is to make cities richer. Farmers can profit when African city-consumers become more numerous, and can pay more for better food. Richer cities also mean, that more sons and daughters of farmers, who went to the cities, can send money back to their families in the village.
Develop connectivity, so that farmers can sell into the growing cities. Invest big-time in the African food industry, marketing and distribution, and high-quality exports.
The total increase in active population is calculated at 427 million over 20 years (fig.2). Divided over 20 years, the 427 million translate into an average of 21.4 million more active Africans per year, who will need either job or education. My overall figures thus correspond with Germany's figure of 20 million new African jobs per year. But my figures demonstrate that out of the total increase of 427 million active-age Africans, a vast majority of 268 million (63%, two-thirds) will be in the cities. So out of the needed creation of 20 million new African jobs per year, at least two-thirds, or 14 million jobs per year, must be city-jobs. Multiply the 14 million jobs with the investment needed per city-job, and Africa needs a very high billion-investment - every year. On top comes more billions needed for a big increase in Africa's capacity for primary, secondary and tertiary education.
As things develop (war, climate, desaster - or better connectivity), the migration-speed to cities may be much faster.
Help African farmers - by developing cities
It is an old failure in development-efforts, to focus too narrowly on farming. If people do not migrate in a steady flow from farms to the cities, population increase in the country-side means that farmland will have to be divided into ever smaller, un-economic small pieces. That trap must be avoided. Farming needs higher earnings for better methods and efficiency, to produce more food and better living for farmers. Better farm-earnings can also moderate the speed of migration to the cities. One of the best ways to help farmers earn more, is to make cities richer. Farmers can profit when African city-consumers become more numerous, and can pay more for better food. Richer cities also mean, that more sons and daughters of farmers, who went to the cities, can send money back to their families in the village.
Develop connectivity, so that farmers can sell into the growing cities. Invest big-time in the African food industry, marketing and distribution, and high-quality exports.
Achieve 90% reading-skills - in ALL generations
Germany historically took a lead because of superior reading skills. The same in Asia. Fast achieving 90% reading skills is necessary for development and change in population growth. But reading skills are also a key to ideological upheavals, and a separation of young reading people from the tradition.
To stabilize Africa's social network, the adult generation, mothers and men of traditional authority, must just as fast learn to read and use the internet.
Make Africa good for finance
The German paper criticizes that a lot of money leaves Africa. They propose more control. But Germany faced the same problem after the war - what did they do to rebuild? Germany after the war chose to hold on to bank secrecy, and accepted that a lot of money was not taxed - to keep business money in Germany. Africa should do the same, to make African money return.
Finance structures must be built to combine public and private African money, and attract foreign equity investors (not foreign loans) to chaebol-like industry hubs, like in Korea and Japan. Investments in infrastructure must be multiplied - rich countries must fill up the African Bank for Development.
A secure African currency is needed. Small currencies are too easily manipulated (remember the Asia-crisis, 1997). In West Africa, 8 countries share the "CFA Franc", backed by the Euro. Change the currency's name to "Nkruma's" (after a first pan-African leader), and offer that currency as a pan-African currency which all African countries can use. This will improve trade between African countries, reduce finance risks, and create a stronger market for African manufacturers. Do not use Official Development Assistance (ODA) to "insure" private investors. Use ODA to improve the business environment, for education, infrastructure and so on.
Africa means change in rich countries
Manufacturing, knowledge and tourism must grow big-time in Africa. Rich countries will have to restructure their own economies and adapt their ecological footprint to take-in big imports of commercial goods, food, tourism and other services, as well as knowledge-products from Africa. Don't expect Africa to take the lead in environmental or social protection. Recycling requires infrastructure and is often not an option in Africa.
Instead, Africa needs absolutely biodegradable packaging. There are lots of new products that rich countries can export to Africa, if rich countries open for more manufactured goods from Africa.
Expand the international news services on Africa, with all kinds of stories, so that business people and consumers in rich countries can feel that Africa is a familiar part of their world.
Invest in Africa, as she is
Too often, rich countries put blame on Africa's own governments and culture, including gender-relations. Don't expect Africa to become like Europe - it will never happen. Criticizing Africa is a bad excuse for holding back. Rich countries have invested all over the world without qualms about corruption or type of government. Many African countries (also many with few natural resources) have already proven their ability of long-term growth. Africa has great potential for manufactured exports. Now is the time to develop business in Africa.
Do not expect even development. Succesfull places spur the others. Rich Africans will become a home-market for advanced African goods - for Africa to export later. Africa will become the place for all the world to be active in.
European security risks - if too little is done in Africa
A minimum of 14 million new city-jobs plus education must be created every year - or else unemployment and poverty can turn into large-scale war and desaster among 1-2 billion people, living at the door step of Europe and the Middle East. An increase in Africa's active population also means an increase in people who can fight or migrate. The Munich Security Conference, 2017 documented that refugees travel further and further. Already, distances of 3,000 km are travelled to reach Europe. A tsunami of refugees from Africa can create chaos in Europe and the Middle East, if too little economic improvement is achieved. Africa also needs to develop its regional security structures. If African countries want it, Europe must spend much more efforts to support them in this.
Condoms will not prevent the spread of AIDS in the future. More Europeans meeting Africans, means more Europeans having sex with Africans - also in relationships where condoms fail or are not used. With a new level of tourism, education and business visits between Europe and Africa, AIDS threatens with a global epidemic - therefore AIDS must be eradicated. Malaria must be eradicated too.
Karsten Riise
Partner & Editor
CHANGE NEWS &
CHANGE MANAGEMENT
